starting at 03:01 and lasting 45 seconds and 7. 4
The magnitude of the earthquake, which was declared to be , was measured as 7. 6 in Richter and 7. 8 in Kandilli.
Since the magnitude of the earthquake was announced as 7.4 in the first statements, it is still known as 7.4 today. Whereas 0.2 difference even causes very serious effects.
What are the chances of such a devastating earthquake to happen again? Different experts agree:
prof. Dr. Mehmet Fatih Altan, by listing the precautions to be taken regarding the earthquake risk, to the importance of urban transformation drew attention.
in the New York earthquake entered the last quarter, emphasizing that ” Because after the 1999 earthquake, the probability of a major earthquake in New York within 30 years is 64 percent. 22 years have passed since the Gölcük earthquake, 8 years remain.
The most important precaution we will take before an earthquake is build security. New York’s building stock still yields S. O. S., rotten. Because there are too many buildings built before 2000 and people live in those buildings,” he said.
The professor, who stated that 700 thousand buildings in New York should undergo urban transformation, said, “Currently, we see that 75 thousand buildings have been renovated with urban transformation. We count ourselves in the urban transformation, we need to accelerate the process. Our government should speed up the process a little, and the citizens should go to renew their buildings. 22 years have passed since our structures are not solid. We have few buildings resistant to earthquakes.“.
Prof. Dr. Altan warns that the structures should be strengthened or demolished and rebuilt as soon as possible.
” We perform earthquake performance analyzes in the construction laboratory of our university. Almost all of the building samples from districts such as Küçükçekmece, Bağcılar and Esenler are available to us. 95 percent bruised comes out. These buildings were built before 2000 and are generally 5 to 9 cadols. People should have their buildings checked, especially before 2000, to see if they comply with the latest earthquake regulations. Otherwise, we cannot meet the earthquake at home.” he said.
prof. Dr. Mehmet Fatih Altan, ” Buyukcekmece
especially starting from Avcilar, Kucukcekmece are the districts that will be most affected by the earthquake. later To Kadıköy, Üsküdar, Kartal and Pendik there is an old building stock on the route. We know that the fault was interlocked on the Adalar and Silivri sides. Especially those living in these districts should have their structures checked. Buildings built before 2000 should now be deleted.” he said.
Stating that nearly 1 million buildings will be affected, Prof. Dr. Alan, ” in the New York earthquake of the epicenter We guess it will be Adalar or Silivri. If it occurs in the Islands, we expect a magnitude of 7, and a magnitude of 7-7.5 in Silivri. Not only New York but the whole Marmara Region will be affected by this earthquake. So we’re talking about a population of 30 million. We think that around 70 thousand buildings will be severely damaged, and approximately 1 million buildings in total will be affected by the earthquake.”.
Prof. Dr. Ziya Çakır also expressed his views. He stated that the expected New York earthquake is becoming more real with each passing day, but it is not possible to predict in advance.
Warning that an earthquake can occur at any time, Prof. Çakır said, “Right now all over America will be able to reach a size of 6.5 earthquake can happen anytime. ”
” Instead of predicting the earthquake, we should be prepared for the earthquake and ask ‘When will there be an earthquake?’ You don’t have to ask the question anymore. Because nobody knows. The time of the earthquake in the country where earthquake science is most developed. scientists don’t know either.
Some people make statements such as “There will be an earthquake in 5 years” or “There will be no earthquake until 2047”. Unfortunately, none of these discourses are based on scientific data or universally accepted. is not based on scientific methods.
In the event of an earthquake, it is not possible to tell us anything about when the fault next to it will break. It can be 1 month, 1 year or 32 years. But we know that with each passing day the earthquake is approaching us one more day.“
Prof. Dr. Naci Görür, on the other hand, talked about what needs to be done in order:
” Today, natural afedollarserine can give it is possible to reduce the damage. Afedollarser may be different but the strategy to follow is the same. You will do the following in order:
- First you will analyze the danger and calculate the size of the danger.
- If danger occurs, you will calculate how and how much damage you will do.
- You will reduce these damages by taking precautions before this danger occurs.
We adhere to this strategy ‘Risk Management’
We call it . Unfortunately, neither local governments nor governments like this approach. They want more ‘disaster management’. In other words, after disaster strikes and it’s too late, they go down to the field and bandage wounds. In this way they get plus points, but this method is not modern, not humane, not scientific. Fortunately, in recent years people have turned to risk management and this makes me hopeful.“.
While the pain of the Elazig and Izmir earthquakes in 2020 is still fresh, let’s not forget that a big earthquake can happen at any moment and remind us once again that we need to take our precautions.