Technical analyst and blockchain expert Omkar Godbole has published his analysis, where the SEC touches on upcoming Bitcoin ETF decisions and examines the exchanges’ monthly reports. As Bitcoin closes September with another red candle, whales are said to have gathered on the dips and kept the rally afloat. It is also confirmed by different analystsdollarser that its market can withstand against Chinese bans.
Bitcoin ends this September with a negative nodol too!
Bitcoin looks set to end the seasonally bearish September with a negative nodol due to instability in global financial markets, regulatory concerns and China’s decision to ban crypto businesses. Monthly chart:
According to the data, Bitcoin is 1% in 24 hours on Wednesday. Although it is trading at $42,220 with an increase of 1, it is experiencing a monthly decrease of 10%, which is the biggest since May. Also, the positive market mood seen at the beginning of the month was choked by renewed regulatory fears stemming from the SEC’s attempts to stop the Nasdaq-listed crypto exchange Coinbase from launching its 4%-annual lending program. President Gary Gensler doubled down on crypto regulatory calls and compared stablecoins to poker chips. Meanwhile, China’s decision to declare all virtual currency-related businesses illegal and the turmoil in the real estate market increased the pain.
However, according to analystsdollars, most of the selling pressure came from new investors. “What we’re seeing here is that legacy investors are sticking to cryptocurrencies, as evidenced by the average lifetime declines of spent output,” Blockware Intelligence said in a September 17 news release. One of his analyzes in the newsletter was on institutions:
As a general rule, high spending from legacy organizations is trending downward, while low spending from legacy organizations is trending.
Whales keep the rally afloat by buying BTC on the decline!
Omkar Godbole, whose analysis we share as , says that big traders are keeping the year-end rally hopefuls alive by buying on the decline. The supply, controlled by organizations holding at least 1,000 BTC to 10,000 BTC, has increased by 60,000 BTC this month, according to blockchain data firm Glassnode. In addition to all this, analystsdollarser says that China’s stricter ban may have a limited negative effect at worst, and Bitcoin will remain resistant to the contraction of the Federal Reserve (scaling back in the incentive) that is expected to start in the next quarter. Historically, Bitcoin has recorded the largest quarterly gains in the October-December period.
“Bitcoin (BTC) has decreased correlation with gold”
According to Omkar Godbole, the focus will be on how the myth of the US debt ceiling came to be. According to Treasury estimates quoted by Brookings, Congress needs to raise or suspend the debt ceiling, otherwise the government will run out of cash to pay all its obligations. Also, the S&P 500 fell 2% on Tuesday after a vote on the temporary spending measure was blocked in the Senate, with the debt ceiling suspended. An ongoing sell-off in the stocks could weigh on Bitcoin, according to the analyst. Additionally, crypto exchange Luno shared their analysis of Bitcoin in its weekly report:
We see that Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with the S&P 500 has increased significantly during this (September) hedging period. At the same time, Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has declined. While Bitcoin has many similar characteristics to gold, it still acts as a risky asset and is highly correlated with the stock market during market turmoil.
Meanwhile, the SEC’s final decision on several Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications and regulators’ initial response to futures-based ETFs are closely watched.
Arcane Research expects movement towards these dates
Finally, in Arcane Research’s weekly report dated September 28, he said:
The final decision date for spot ETFs (shown in the red rectangle in the table) is fast approaching. VanEck will make the final decision by November 14, with other funds to be decided soon. We expect to see the market move towards these dates. Futures-based ETFs also receive their first half-dollars in a short time. In the next 40 days, six futures-based Bitcoin ETF apps will receive the first response from the SEC.