Altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA) and Solana (SOL) have been on a sharp rise over the past few weeks as Bitcoin slowly creeps towards $50,000 and is actually currently struggling to hold it. According to crypto analyst Anırudh Tıwarı, despite Bitcoin (BTC)’s historically lackluster performance in September, 2021 could break this trend if the current market momentum continues. Cryptocoin. com

As , we have compiled the market analysis of analisdollarserin Bitcoin and altcoins for you.

September, historically the worst performing month for Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin has been struggling to surpass $50,000 for more than 10 days. However, on September 2, the leading cryptocurrency briefly surpassed the milestone and sent positive ripples to the market. Since then, the token has dropped below the mark to trade in the $49,000 range and hit $50,000 again on September 3. Analyst Anırudh Tıwarı says that Bitcoin generally moves in a cyclical pattern, a glance at monthly trends for September can reveal patterns in price, which can help gauge the outlook for the next month.

Historically, September was one of the more sluggish months for BTC. Looking at the monthly price data from 2013 reveals that the token has registered positive gains of 6% maximum twice in eight years (in 2015 and 2016) in September, which can be considered almost constant. Pete Humiston, director of Kraken Intelligence, the Kraken exchange’s research department, explains what this train could mean for this year:

September is historically Bitcoin’s worst performing month. However, it has been approaching $50,000 for the past three weeks. If Bitcoin breaks above this psychologically important turning point, it could renew investor interest and ignite the momentum needed to move it to $60,000.

According to Anırudh Tıwarı, BTC actually showed red in four of the last five years in September, making it the most gloomy period for the cryptocurrency. However, the $50,000 mark hasn’t been around since Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk broke the barrier just days after the company announced it had purchased $1.5 billion worth of BTC on February 8 and accepted Bitcoin as a payment method. It is considered one of the key resistance levels for the asset. The analyst says that briefly crossing this resistance level earlier this month could be a positive sign for BTC, and he is discussing the current scenario with Hunain Naseer, senior analyst at OKEx Insights, the research team of cryptocurrency exchange OKEx. The senior analyst comments:

As it stands today, BTC’s struggle below $50,000 must be won by major fighting bulls before it looks to $60,000. The move from $50,000 to $60,000 will likely be much faster than the current move between $40,000 and $50,000.

PlanB’s stock-to-flow (S2F) model sees less divergence in BTC

Anırudh Tıwarı considers Twitter user PlanB’s stock-to-flow (S2F) model as one of the most accurate quantitative models attempting to evaluate and predict Bitcoin price. The model estimates based on the supply injections of the asset into circulation over a given period of time. According to the model, Bitcoin price should cross $100,000 and trade around $105,000. However, BTC is currently recovering from a larger divergence from S2F at the end of July, when the pattern appears to be invalidated.

The analyst states that this is not the first time that the Bitcoin price has deviated from the pattern negatively, stating that the divergence started at the end of October 2018 and lasted for about seven months until mid-June 2019. By comparison, the current ongoing negative change seems to take about three months. Anırudh Tiwari finds it remarkable that the S2F model for the remainder of the year is fairly flat and predicts a similar range at the beginning of the fourth quarter.

Source: BuyBitcoinWorldwide

Senior analyst Hunain Naseer discusses the model’s predictions more than the market price, saying:

Given the current sentiment and long-term fundamentals, it is out of the question for BTC to reach $100,000 by December, especially as October and November are historically big months for Bitcoin. They could easily set it to $100,000 by mid-December before any corrections.

Jake Wujastyk, chief market analyst at technical analysis software company TrendSpider, comments on this model: “The June 2021 low will keep it around $100,000 by the end of the year, assuming the movement is the same.” According to analyst Anırudh Tıwarı, while the S2F model has been extremely accurate in predicting Bitcoin price so far, it is important to remember that all technical indicators have their limitations. Talking more about the broader perspective of the cryptocurrency market, Pete Humiston comments:

Moving to $100,000 in four months will require significant capital inflows. Of course, this is not impossible, but it seems incredible that investors’ attention has shifted to alternative crypto assets such as Ether, Cardano, and Solana.

“ETH, ADA and Solana could prevent $100,000 Bitcoin (BTC) this year”

Altcoins like Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA) and Solana (SOL) have been on a sharp rise over the past few weeks as Bitcoin slowly creeps towards $50,000 and is actually currently struggling to hold it. At the time of writing, BTC has gained 6.40% in the previous seven days, according to data from CoinMarketCap. By comparison, altcoins eclipsed these numbers, with Solana (SOL) rising 73.83%, ETH 26.57% and ADA 15.97% over the same period. SOL and ADA recently hit all-time highs in September as well.

According to data from TragView, this altcoin paddling has reduced the Bitcoin Dominance (BTCD) Index to 41.46% at the time of writing. This is similar to the levels it reached in June 2018. Johnny Lyu, CEO of crypto exchange KuCoi, says:

It is important to understand how ETH and other altcoins can compete with BTC for new investors’ money, and how long-standing ones can behave. Without the prosperity of altcoins, adoption of the crypto kidollarse cannot be achieved. Many market participants believe that at the current price level, it is the value of altcoins that is more prone to multiple increases.

Analyst Anırudh Tıwarı said that the price of Solana (SOL) has increased more than 100 times since the beginning of the year, even PlanB’s optimistic S2F model for BTC will be worth just over $100,000 by the end of the year, meaning the token’s value at the beginning of the year is just three times higher. He states that he predicts that it will be solid, and that such large differences in returns may even force investors to choose altcoins over Bitcoin as investment vehicle.

However, institutional interest in Bitcoin is seeing an uptick compared to levels seen in June and July. Microstrategy made another BTC purchase, this time worth $177 million, on August 24. This corresponds to a total of 105,085 BTC, which is currently worth $5.2 billion, 0.5% of the maximum supply of 21 million BTC. Citigroup Inc., one of the world’s leading financial institutions. It is even considering buying Bitcoin futures offered by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the world’s largest derivatives exchange. According to the latest report, the banking firm is awaiting regulatory approval to trade in this derivative instrument.

Jake Wujastyk: Institutional capital is definitely involved when you look at Bitcoin price action

Johnny Lyu, CEO of KuCoi, also talks about how the growth of the cryptocurrency market as a whole has renewed institutional interest in the industry, commenting:

The gradual recovery of institutional interest in cryptocurrency is already evident. Positive news about SpaceX’s investments in Bitcoin, Ethereum network upgrades in August and Cardano network upgrades in September, all this neutralizes the May and June market and strengthens market participants’ confidence in further growth.

Chief market analyst Jake Wujastyk says that Bitcoin’s price movements over the past few months require massive injections of capital to move the market, which shows that institutional capital is definitely at work. According to the analyst, this market momentum, currently available for both Bitcoin and altcoins, could be the differentiating factor leading to a historically dire month for the cryptocurrency market.

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Michael Lewis


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